It could be easy to lay off betting on the Golden State Warriors down the stretch, especially as they rest players and considerably more because of a matchup with the surging Memphis Grizzlies. However, this point in the NBA season wagering is all about value and the 'Dubs' might have some of the best value in recent weeks with Sunday night's line.
Of course, the Grizzlies will have something to say about that. They are pushing hard late in the year and currently sit in the 7th seed in the West. However they're just a game out of jumping up to the 5th seed and most teams would agree that a first-round playoff meeting with the Jazz is much more preferable than facing the Rockets, Spurs, or Warriors.
Two weeks ago the sky was crumbling and Golden State was all but assured of falling out of the #1 spot in the West for the first time in what feels like 2-3 years. This was all due to an unprecedented 3 game losing streak, a 2-5 stretch, and even a home loss against Boston. Since then Golden State has turned it around with three straight wins and has pushed their lead over San Antonio up to 2 games for home-court advantage. Are the Warriors back or is that 3-game streak due to the opponents being Philadelphia, Orlando, and Milwaukee?
Memphis was in a bit of a freefall themselves after dropping 5 straight games to start March. They too rebounded nicely with a four-game winning streak including a victory over San Antonio. Getting a victory in the Bay Area is no easy task, but the Grizzlies are one of six teams in the West with a plus .500 road winning record.
The Grizzlies actually lead the season series against Golden State 2-1. They notched an 110-89 victory in Memphis in December and won 128-119 in OT in Golden State in January before losing 122-107 at home in February. Two of the three games went 'over' the total.
So, how does Sunday night's matchup stack up? Memphis has proven they have the capabilities to beat the Warriors and will be playing on two nights of rest after a Thursday game in San Antonio. After a Tuesday night game in Dallas, the Warriors have just a Friday night game at home against Sacramento on their schedule. Does Memphis have a chance? Of course. Is there great value on a 29-4 home team trying to right their ship before the playoffs? Definitely. It's not pretty, but Golden State is the pick.